Get prepared for the below chart / This will play out hugely this year

Don't let the market panic, anxiety and fear get the best of you. Our stance hasn't changed. Markets continue to head south and I certainly sense the start of some 'fear' in the broader market.

Back in April 2014 (click here), I posted the below chart that my team helped me to articulate.

I indicated we were entering the M&A phase. That was the optimism point on the graph. Now I believe we are at the denial point. Everywhere I read and all the other noise (media) around indicates reasons to buy. Most are in denial of the fact we have corrected. The very fact that every rally is sold off is giving you a clue. 

You will get the opportunity to buy. Sit tight and develop a contrarian mind-set. As seen on our now good advice in March 2015 to short the major banks (see last week's post, "Tipping Point, Credit Suisse [CS] CEO "Severely Risking Investors Money") and even the likes of Caterpillar (CAT); it proves you can still make significant money on the downside if you acknowledge the section of the cycle we all exist in right now.

How can The Edge help you protect and increase your assets and management fees in the year ahead?

Alpha. Over 8 years, our client model portfolio may have generated a 9% Alpha, but my 12 strong team and I sat organized a thorough clear out a few months ago over a focused weekend. Today, I’m very grateful that action has helped us to seriously outperform the major indices.

Now, the benefit to our clients is we are strictly promoting only the very best of our long-ideas to our global clients; saving them many months of time and costly resource by fundamentally analyzing each situation for at least 200-300 hours before presenting the bull, bear and base case scenarios.

Opportunities ahead?

Personally believe that as this current volatility increases you are going to see bigger opportunities in the Spinoff and Special Situations space as they become less covered.

'So what?' I hear you say. Well, I'd like you to do 3 things for homework over the next week.

1) Look at your portfolio.
Ask yourself, have I got all my best ideas in there? If not, get rid of them now. It’s a new year and a good reason to have a clean out.

2) Historic Smart Data
Covering all sectors, geographies and performance, get a copy of our current global Spinoff Study (from 2000) that we analyzed in conjunction with Deloitte, and please learn it! This exclusive study will give you an edge along with the early fundamental analysis and recommendations we provide. Use it as a tool for investing in the many up and coming Spinoffs

3) Lastly, I want you to consider everything you hold and ask yourself:

  • Do I understand it?
  • Does it fit into the portfolio?
  • Should I buy a little and then scale in?

Next Top Ideas?

As the main street brokers go quiet, from the Spinoff space, we are about to release on '3 Completely Misunderstood Big Spinoffs' that we believe retain significant value right now. As ever, we will give the levels to get in.

The volatility is rising and this creates opportunity. Forget the TV, media and all the other noise out there. Stick to the fundamentals. Follow and act on what we say. Take emotion out of the equation. Trust the process. Our guarantee is to always make a multiple return on your investment in us.


See our analysis. Test if The Edge Group can deliver you value you can’t get anywhere else in the world